Gist: We cannot predict the future. The Economic conditions are not predictable by using some theory models or computer calculations. Commentator Justin Wolfers , the professor from Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, believes that economists should not be trusted.
When the weather man is wrong, we just got wet. When economists are wrong, we got Great Recession. Macroeconomists, academic economists are often building models trying to predict the next step. They failed. Statisticians try to figure out something in a bunch of numbers and make some prediction. They failed, too. No one successfully predict the 2007 recession. Those complicate economic models all failed to recognize the real world.
Economy is history. We can learn lessons from the past experience. We can make rules to prevent some situation. However, the future is unpredictable because of the changing condition by time.
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